Paytm shares declined by 10% after Goldman Sachs analysts flagged the upcoming UPI cap deadline as a significant event affecting the company. Despite this, analysts remain optimistic about Paytm's earnings growth and valuation due to the expansion of its postpaid services and a potential relaunch of its digital wallet.
- Goldman Sachs raised earnings per share (EPS) estimates for Paytm by up to 39%.
- Paytm’s EBITDA estimates were upgraded by up to 40% following the incorporation of the UPI MDR changes.
- The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) removed Paytm Payments Bank from the list of scheduled banks after cancelling its banking licence.
- Paytm shares have surged 29% since the start of the year despite recent declines.
- The Delhi High Court ordered the winding up of Paytm Payments Bank Limited (PPBL).
What caused Paytm shares to decline recently?
Paytm shares fell sharply due to concerns over the UPI Merchant Discount Rate (MDR) cap deadline and regulatory actions against its payments bank. The RBI officially removed Paytm Payments Bank from the list of scheduled banks after cancelling its banking licence for non-compliance with banking norms. This regulatory setback contributed to the stock’s decline.
How has Goldman Sachs responded to Paytm’s current situation?
Goldman Sachs analysts remain positive about Paytm’s long-term prospects. They noted that Paytm’s market share, revenue growth, and margin momentum are strong and expected to continue. The analysts incorporated the UPI MDR changes into their financial models and increased their EPS estimates by up to 39%, with EBITDA estimates rising by up to 40%. They also highlighted potential earnings growth from the scale-up of Paytm’s postpaid services and a possible relaunch of its wallet.
What regulatory issues has Paytm Payments Bank faced?
In April 2026, the RBI cancelled Paytm Payments Bank’s licence due to non-compliance with regulatory norms. The central bank stated that the bank’s operations were detrimental to the interests of its depositors. Earlier, in March 2022, the RBI had barred Paytm Payments Bank from onboarding new customers. Following the licence cancellation, the Delhi High Court ordered the winding up of Paytm Payments Bank Limited.
How has Paytm’s stock performed over the past year?
Despite recent declines, Paytm’s parent company, One 97 Communications, has seen its shares rise by 29% since the beginning of 2026. The stock reached a one-year high of ₹1,855.50 on September 16, 2026, and a 52-week low of ₹930.60 on March 30, 2026. As of October 8, 2026, Paytm’s market capitalization stood at ₹1.07 lakh crore.
What is the significance of being a scheduled bank in India?
Scheduled banks are those included in the Second Schedule of the Reserve Bank of India Act, 1934. These banks meet the RBI’s financial standards and enjoy special operational privileges. Removal from this list, as happened with Paytm Payments Bank, means losing these privileges and recognition, which can impact the bank’s operations and customer trust.
