NIFTY50 recorded its best weekly performance since April 2026, rising 2.78% and closing above important resistance levels. This strong momentum raises the question: can NIFTY50 defend the 23,100 level on expiry day? The index’s recent price action and technical indicators suggest a positive outlook, but global market factors also play a role.
- NIFTY50 gained 2.78% last week, its best weekly rise since April 2026.
- The index closed above key resistance levels and maintained above the 20 and 50 exponential moving averages (EMA) on hourly charts for four sessions.
- Medium-term support is near 23,000, with resistance around 23,400 and 23,700.
- Open interest data for weekly expiry shows strong resistance at 23,500 calls and support at 22,700 puts.
- Global market volatility, including rising crude oil prices and mixed Asian market performance, influences NIFTY50’s outlook.
What Does NIFTY50’s Recent Performance Indicate?
Last week, NIFTY50 surged by 2.78%, marking its best weekly gain since April 2026. The index closed above several crucial resistance levels, signaling renewed bullish momentum. On the hourly charts, NIFTY50 stayed above the 20 and 50 EMAs for four straight sessions, which technical analysts interpret as a sign of sustained short-term strength.
How Are Global Markets Affecting NIFTY50?
Despite global uncertainty, the GIFT NIFTY futures traded 20 points higher on Monday, suggesting a positive start for the index. However, global factors remain mixed. Brent crude oil prices jumped over 4% on Friday, nearing $110 per barrel due to freight cost increases and supply-demand mismatches. The Middle East remains volatile following recent attacks in Saudi Arabia.
Meanwhile, U.S. markets extended losses for the eighth consecutive session, with the NASDAQ 100 falling 2.5%, and the Dow Jones and S&P 500 dropping 1.1%. Asian markets opened mixed, with Japan’s Nikkei down 1.2% and Korea’s KOSPI down 0.3%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rose 0.52%.
What Are the Key Technical Levels for NIFTY50?
On daily charts, NIFTY50 shows signs of a sustained reversal from lower levels. The index defended the medium-term 20-day moving average for two sessions and closed above the psychological 23,000 level, indicating revived momentum. Weekly charts show the index holding above the 200 EMA, suggesting a long-term trend reversal.
Looking ahead, 23,400 is the near-term resistance level, while 23,700 acts as near-term support. Open interest data for the weekly expiry indicates a trading range between 22,700 and 23,500. The highest open interest on call options is at 23,500, marking strong resistance, and the highest open interest on put options is at 22,700, indicating near-term support.
What Can Traders Expect on Expiry Day?
Given the technical indicators and open interest data, NIFTY50 is likely to trade within the 22,700 to 23,500 range on expiry day. The index’s ability to hold above 23,100 will depend on how it reacts to resistance at 23,400 and 23,500. Traders should watch these levels closely, as well as global market developments that could influence market sentiment.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What does it mean when NIFTY50 stays above the 20 and 50 EMA?
A: Staying above the 20 and 50 exponential moving averages indicates that the index has strong short-term momentum and is likely in a bullish phase.
Q: Why is the 23,000 level important for NIFTY50?
A: The 23,000 level is a psychological resistance point. Closing above it shows renewed buying interest and can signal further upward movement.
Q: How do open interest levels affect NIFTY50’s price movement?
A: High open interest at certain strike prices indicates strong support or resistance levels, which can influence how the index moves, especially on expiry days.
